I backtested "taking a mortgage to purchase Bitcoin" vs DCA throughout each month since 2016. Here is what 10 years of knowledge exhibits.

TLDR: Even at 15% APR with 30% down, shopping for Bitcoin upfront on a mortgage beats DCA 67-89% of the time relying on the time period size. However provided that you don't get liquidated.

I posted the same thought on this sub just a few months in the past and obtained roasted. I obtained humbled and regarded on the information.

For each month from Jan 2016 to Feb 2026, I in contrast two methods utilizing the identical complete greenback outlay.

Technique A: put 30% down, borrow the remaining at 15% APR, purchase all BTC upfront, repay month-to-month. Technique B: take that very same complete money and DCA it over the identical interval.

DCA really will get extra {dollars} to deploy as a result of it consists of curiosity funds.

The mortgage nonetheless wins the vast majority of the time. The longer the time period, the broader the hole. At 1 yr the mortgage wins 67% of the time. At 5 years, 89%.

Now the half that issues. I additionally simulated what occurs with conventional crypto lenders. If BTC drops 50%+ out of your entry worth, they force-sell your Bitcoin to cowl the mortgage.

Everybody in my final publish was proper to deliver up this crash threat. The intervals the place liquidation will get triggered are virtually all the time ones the place to procure close to a high and DCA would have been the higher play anyway. You already timed it badly. Liquidation simply makes it everlasting by promoting your BTC on the worst attainable second as an alternative of letting you maintain by means of the restoration.

A mate of mine went by means of precisely this in 2022 with a B2X on Ledn. BTC dropped, hit the liquidation threshold, Bitcoin gone.

Your typical mortgage lender in tradfi doesn't repossess your home as a result of costs dipped. However that's precisely how crypto lending works at this time. Liquidation makes dangerous timing everlasting. And I feel that's a design downside.

I constructed a backtesting instrument so you possibly can take a look at this with no matter assumptions you need. Code is open supply.

What if there was a mortgage product that labored like a mortgage? The information makes me suppose there's one thing right here however the final publish made it appear to be no person needs this. Genuinely curious what the sub thinks.