Novo Nordisk ($NVO) has been one of the crucial influential healthcare firms because of its weight problems medication Ozempic and Wegovy. These merchandise modified the burden loss business, drove explosive income progress and briefly made Novo Nordisk Europe’s Most worthy firm. However 2025 has marked a pointy reversal. The inventory is down about 50 % for the 12 months, signalling a significant shift in investor expectations. The query is easy: is that this the start of a protracted decline, or the type of reset that creates alternative for long-term buyers?
1. The Twist in Novo’s Journey
The turning level started in the US, which accounts for 58 % of Novo Nordisk’s income. Development expectations have been lower a number of occasions, Wegovy demand softened, and round a million People shifted to cheaper compounded semaglutide, pulling significant quantity away. On the similar time, Eli Lilly expanded provide of Mounjaro and Zepbound and secured broader insurance coverage protection, growing aggressive stress.
Pipeline updates added to the weak spot. CagriSema delivered 22.7 % weight reduction, robust however beneath investor expectations, and the inventory dropped about 10 %. Just lately, an Alzheimer’s trial failed, pushing shares to a four-year low and elevating questions on Novo’s pipeline exterior GLP-1 medicines.
A management transition created additional uncertainty. New CEO Mike Doustdar tried a ten billion greenback takeover of Metsera, however Pfizer gained the bid with a decrease provide and regulators flagged consolidation issues. The state of affairs cut up buyers between seeing strategic imaginative and prescient and seeing urgency.
2. Resetting the Playbook
Going through stress on progress, pricing and provide, Novo Nordisk launched a broad strategic reset. The corporate lower out-of-pocket costs for Ozempic and Wegovy to 199 {dollars} for starter doses and 349 {dollars} month-to-month, with Medicare pricing set to drop towards 245 {dollars} and oral GLP-1 choices probably close to 149 {dollars} by 2027. The aim is to increase entry and gradual the migration towards compounded options.
On the similar time, Novo is investing greater than 9 billion {dollars} in 2025 to increase international manufacturing. This consists of doubling U.S. manufacturing together with main expansions in Denmark, France, China and Brazil. Some provide tightness is anticipated by way of 2025 as services ramp up.
To assist this shift, Novo Nordisk can also be restructuring. About 9,000 jobs (roughly 11 % of the workforce) might be eradicated, together with 5,000 roles in Denmark. Hiring continues in manufacturing, medical improvement and industrial areas, whereas nonessential recruitment is frozen.
3. What the Numbers Reveal
Regardless of the challenges, Novo Nordisk continues to ship robust monetary efficiency. Within the first 9 months of 2025, gross sales reached DKK 229.9 billion, up 12% 12 months over 12 months, whereas working revenue grew 5% to DKK 95.9 billion. Weight problems care remained the strongest engine, with gross sales rising 41% at fixed alternate charges to DKK 59.9 billion. EBITDA reached DKK 112.3 billion, reflecting one of many highest profitability ranges within the international pharmaceutical business.
What stands out most is the valuation reset. Novo Nordisk now trades at:
P/E round 13• ahead P/E round 12• EV/EBITDA round 9• worth to gross sales round 4.3• worth to guide round 8
Traditionally Novo Nordisk traded at a P/E between 22 and 27. The present valuation is due to this fact 40–50% beneath its long run common.
The market now not costs Novo Nordisk as a high-growth innovator and is now valuing it extra like a mature pharmaceutical firm. This shift cuts each methods. If progress weakens once more, the inventory might fall additional, however the decrease valuation additionally offers Novo room to outperform if situations begin to stabilize.
To shift sentiment the corporate might want to ship on three areas:
stabilisation of Wegovy demand• profitable enlargement into excessive quantity packages equivalent to Medicare, TrumpRx and decrease priced tiers• a aggressive pipeline, particularly the oral weight problems drug anticipated in 2026 and future CagriSema improvement
If these components strengthen, in the present day’s valuation could show overly pessimistic.
4. Will the Inventory Get better or Fall Additional?
The long run course of the share worth will rely upon a number of elements, however the state of affairs is now extra outlined than earlier within the 12 months. The principle challenges, weaker US demand, stronger competitors and a narrowed full 12 months outlook are already identified and mirrored within the share worth. The main target now shifts to how Novo Nordisk manages the subsequent stage.
What’s going to buyers look within the close to future:• updates on Wegovy demand in the US• the dimensions of compounded GLP 1 use• any changes to 2025 steering
These areas nonetheless affect how shortly efficiency within the US market can stabilize.
Trying additional forward, a number of milestones might form the medium time period outlook, though most of them fall in 2026 or later:
the launch of the oral weight problems drug• regulatory choices that have an effect on pricing or entry• enlargement into giant quantity packages equivalent to Medicare• new medical knowledge from pipeline candidates
Novo Nordisk ($NVO) stays a big international participant with robust monetary efficiency, however the setting round it has change into extra advanced. Competitors, pricing stress and regulatory elements are prone to proceed affecting the inventory as new data emerges. The general course is open, and the subsequent part will rely upon firm execution and broader market situations.
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