Ethereum doesn’t have a hard and fast “X% inflation endlessly” schedule. Its provide is mainly the tug-of-war between:
1) ISSUANCE (new ETH paid to safe the community)
2) BURN (ETH destroyed by way of EIP-1559 base price)
So ETH might be inflationary in a single interval and deflationary in one other.
————————————————————
THE 2 BIG CHANGES
————————————————————
A) EIP-1559 (price burn, reside since Aug 2021)
– Base price is burned (destroyed), so exercise can scale back provide.
B) The Merge (executed Sep 15, 2022) — issuance collapsed
Ethereum.org’s issuance breakdown makes use of these ballpark numbers:
– Pre-Merge: ~13,000 ETH/day to PoW miners (+ PoS issuance existed in parallel)
– Publish-Merge: ~1,700 ETH/day to PoS validators
=> ~88% drop in new issuance
A neat rule-of-thumb from ethereum.org:
– If common fuel is ~16 gwei or greater on a given day, burn can roughly offset ~1,700 ETH/day issuance (web ~0 or deflation for that day).
————————————————————
BEFORE vs AFTER: YoY SUPPLY INFLATION (REAL SUPPLY DATA)
Definition right here: examine in the present day’s circulating provide vs 1 yr in the past (YoY % change).
Listed here are the “regime” numbers across the Merge:
1) LAST FULL YEAR BEFORE THE MERGE (PoW period, however already with EIP-1559 burn)
– Sep 15, 2021 → Sep 14, 2022:
Avg YoY inflation: ~4.16%
Median: ~4.32%
2) FIRST POST-MERGE YEAR
– Sep 15, 2022 → Sep 14, 2023:
Avg YoY inflation: ~1.06%
Median: ~0.97%
3) SECOND POST-MERGE YEAR
– Sep 15, 2023 → Sep 14, 2024:
Avg YoY inflation: ~-0.13% (web deflation on common)
(Sure, unfavourable YoY provide change on common for a full yr.)
Peak “deflationary stretch” (from the dataset):
– Most deflationary datapoint: ~-0.2957% annualized (round mid-2023)
————————————————————
RECENT SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT: “NEAR ABSOLUTE ZERO”
————————————————————
Present snapshot (newest datapoint in my YoY sequence):
– Provide: ~120.74M ETH
– YoY inflation: ~0.2371% (as of 2026-01-26)
What does 0.237% imply in ETH phrases?
– 0.2371% of ~120.74M ≈ ~286k ETH web added over a yr (order of magnitude).
That’s tiny in comparison with the pre-Merge issuance regime.
Quick-term development (final ~30 days within the YoY sequence):
– YoY inflation drifted DOWN from ~0.2578% → ~0.2371%
So it’s mildly constructive proper now, however cooling, not accelerating.
————————————————————
TL;DR
————————————————————
– Pre-Merge: ~4%+ YoY provide progress was “regular”.
– Publish-Merge: baseline issuance dropped massively, so burn usually offsets a big chunk of it.
– End result: ETH provide has been hovering round ~0% (generally +, generally -), relying on exercise.
Full write-up + charts + methodology:
Ethereum's inflation chart
submitted by /u/Topical595 [comments]
Source link
