Macro BTC Evaluation & Dialogue

— TL;DR: My ideas are that BTC shouldn’t be at present in a confirmed bear market. From a macro, month-to-month construction perspective, so long as ~74k holds on a month-to-month shut, the higher-timeframe bull construction stays intact. On the identical time, month-to-month volatility has been compressed for over a yr, suggesting a significant growth section is extra possible sooner reasonably than later. Route isn’t assured — however construction nonetheless favours continuation until that increased low breaks. —

I wish to share this chart as a mind-set about Bitcoin by way of macro construction, reasonably than narratives or inflexible cycle assumptions. This can be a long-term Fibonacci extension drawn utilizing main historic pivots: the early BTC genesis low (2009–2010), the 2017 cycle excessive, and the 2018 bear-market low. Volatility, represented by Caretaker’s BBWP indicator (Bollinger Band Width Percentile, size 13, lookback 252), is on the backside. The objective right here isn’t strict prediction (though it type of is) — it’s to map out higher-timeframe construction.

What stands out to me is how intently the present market is respecting these ranges. The 4.236 extension round ~87k strains up nearly completely with BTC’s most up-to-date assist zone, whereas the three.618 extension round ~74k aligns with the present month-to-month increased low. For me, that ~74k degree is the important thing structural line within the sand. So long as BTC holds above it on a month-to-month closing foundation, higher-timeframe construction and pattern stays intact with higher-highs and higher-lows. A clear month-to-month shut under that degree, adopted by a failed reclaim, could be my sign {that a} true bear-market regime is probably going.

Above present value, the upper Fibonacci extensions — roughly the 6.854 and 10.618 ranges — cluster within the high-100k to low-200k vary. These aren’t targets a lot as zones the place long-term extensions naturally converge if the present construction continues to resolve upward. The field labeled “EOY 2026 / Early 2027” is a structural zone with a little bit of trustworthy hopium, not a name for a precise high.

One further piece that makes this setup attention-grabbing to me is volatility. On the month-to-month timeframe, volatility as measured by the BBWP has been in an excessive compression regime (<20) for over a yr now — one of many longest such durations in BTC’s historical past. With the settings above, Bitcoin has solely skilled such a compression for longer than 17 months as soon as in historical past, and it’s at present on month 15.

So traditionally, volatility compressions on increased timeframes don't persist indefinitely and have a tendency to resolve with growth. That alone doesn’t inform us course, but it surely does recommend the present vary is unlikely to final for much longer. If previous behaviour is any information, this factors to a significant growth section occurring probably inside 3-6 months. If the ~74k degree continues to carry on a month-to-month foundation and momentum can flip again to the upside, then interplay with the subsequent increased fib ranges turns into more and more believable.

One final word on the BBWP, every 'bull run' up to now has seen a BBWP of >50, which we have now not but seen for the present run.

This chart is supposed as a framework, not a name for tops or bottoms. It’s about figuring out the place construction breaks versus the place it stays legitimate. So long as the month-to-month increased low round ~74k holds, I discover it troublesome to justify sturdy bear-market conviction purely from a structural standpoint till that degree breaks on a month-to-month shut.

I’m posting this to get different views, particularly from individuals who give attention to higher-timeframe construction reasonably than cycle timing or short-term indicators. In case you see flaws within the anchoring, interpretation, or assumptions right here, I’d genuinely like to listen to them.

— Trustworthy Disclaimer: AI helped flip scattered ideas into readable English. The concepts (and any dangerous takes) are nonetheless very a lot my very own. —