Anybody who’s been following my posts this week can see this shifting in actual time as we method an inflection level. Put merely: as soon as decrease costs begin attracting extra patrons than sellers (shaken cash dry up), fabricating these dips stops working. That day is getting shut.
For context: 90 days in the past, quantity from cash aged 1.5+ years was ~1,227% larger than it’s now. These older cash are going more and more silent.
They’ll’t conceal this in on-chain knowledge (the one actual provide), however they’d slightly you didn’t look… which is why the narrative is, “all the large gamers are simply within the short-term paper markets now.” That’s false.
You possibly can’t faux giant holders (chilly storage) are dumping when their cash aren’t shifting. Quantity is more and more concentrated within the <1.5 12 months cohort (ETFs / current patrons). ETFs themselves maintain solely ~6–7% of complete provide, but they account for a lot of the seen quantity… algos pushing the identical cash forwards and backwards to make it appear like capitulation. Low liquidity permits this sort of manipulation up to a degree. Past that, it coils the spring. The reflexive transfer when it unwinds can be excessive.
Lengthy-term holders are barely shifting. This isn’t “OGs dumping,” it’s short-term vacationers getting shaken out whereas Wall Road performs video games with paper BTC.
Data is energy.
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